Damon signing perfect bow on a good offseason

John Stroba

Feb. 14th, 2010


Well, it is good to be back after getting some work for the Census down here (need to be able to pay some bills). Now a few days ago, Mike Illitch did get personally involved in the Johnny Damon discussions and put out two contracts and they are : 7 million/1 year and 14 million/2 years.

Now Damon is going to be entering his age 36 season this year and that makes a few Tiger fans really nervous about the contract, but they really should not be. Either one is a short term contract and with the Tigers shedding a lot of payroll after the season, a second year is not going to be a burden on the Tigers payroll. What Damon does do though is a cascading effect on their every day lineup and that is something Detroit really needs right now.

Damon, of course, would probably assume LF and become the Tigers leadoff hitter from Day 1. Damon is a better LFer than Guillen (though a much weaker arm) and does cover more ground than Guillen. And in LF in Comerica that is a prime need. Leyland is thought to be a big fan of his and would probably insert him right there.

That would leave Scott Sizemore, the rookie second baseman, to move into the #2 hole. This is going to invite more comparisons to the departed Placido Polanco. Leyland has said that he wants not put a lot of pressure on young players unless they are guys like Barry Bonds. Clearly, Sizemore is not that. However, he does have more speed and power than Polanco, a very good idea of the strike zone and good bat control. Getting Damon would allow Leyland to hit Sizemore #2 (which is where almost all of ABs have come from in the minors) and play to his strengths.

The middle of the order is set 3-4-5 with Ordonez, Cabrera and Guillen.

The 6th spot is where things start to get interesting again. If the Tigers decide that Austin Jackson needs some more time in Toledo working on his hitting (on his strike zone judgement in particular) then the CF job probably goes to Ryan Raburn. Raburn is not a great defensive CFer but he can get the job down, and with a solid enough range with Damon in LF the demands on his range will not be as great on him. Raburn would probably hit 6th in that case extending the lineup a bit. Should the Tigers decide that Jackson is ready to play every day in CF, then another possibility would be Alex Avila should he get the majority of starts as a catcher. That would be a decent option as well. Should neither of those occur then the Tigers are probably looking at Brandon Inge hitting 6th. Depending which Inge shows up that could be a disaster or quite good.

7-8-9 spots are going to be some combination of Adam Everett, Gerald Laird/Brandon Inge along with Austin Jackson should be come north with the Tigers. Should Jackson not come north then Raburn is probably the 6th hitter with Brandon Inge hitting 7th. The Avila/Laird platoon hitting 8th and defensive minded SS Adam Everett hitting 9th.

Verlander Signing a Relief

By Scott Bolohan

Detroit, you can breath a sigh of relief.

After trading Curtis Granderson this offseason, the eternal optimism which surrounded a Tigers’ offseason turned into a bleak and depressing outlook on 2010. Would Justin Verlander really leave as a free agent in two years? Was he the next out the door? No one knew, and nothing would come as a shock.

The extension comes as much of a commitment to the fans as it does to Verlander. The Tigers are still committed to winning and keeping talent in the organization. They aren’t cutting payroll, they’re building long-term. And now the cornerstone is in place.

Let’s be honest. Dave Dombrowski doesn’t really have the best track record when it comes to handing out contracts. While it’s not without some concern, it’s hard not to like Verlander’s new five year $80 million deal.

Any contract with a pitcher is a risk (see: Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis…) but with Verlander, the risk is worth it. In five years, anything can happen. At any time, he’s one pitch away from ending his career. But in that same time frame, he could win multiple Cy Youngs, lead the league in numerous categories, and solidify himself as one of the games’ aces. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big contract. But it’s the going rate for franchise pitchers, which he certainly is.

Following the trade of Granderson, the Tigers lacked the one player everyone could get behind. Miguel Cabrera should have been that guy, but for whatever reason, he’s never been particularly embraced in Detroit, and his alcohol problems endeared him to no one.

Which left Verlander as the rightful heir to the throne. He’s incredibly talented, perhaps unlike any pitcher in Tiger history. And better yet, he has the drive for greatness. He has his money now, and unlike with many players who hit their big payday, there’s no reason to expect him to slow down. He’s too much of a competitor. Like Granderson, he was homegrown and losing him would have hurt nearly as much. What Verlander lacked in a presence in the community, he made up for in raw, unmatched talent. Pitchers like him are irreplaceable, coming around once in a generation or two.

At this year’s TigerFest, Verlander seems more fan friendly than usual. When he spoke with the fans at his Q and A session, he came across as charismatic and intelligent. He’s never been the most accessible player on the team, but maybe he’s realizing he is now The Man for the Tigers. He has big shoes to fill as the most popular answer to “Who’s Your Tiger?” but he’s seemed to mature enough to handle it.

If he hit the open market, he’d receive a minimum of $20 million a year. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers letting anyone outbid them for Verlander, so it would have only bumped up their price. If anyone can still remember the dark days before Verlander arrived when pitchers like Brian Moehler were the Opening Day starters, the value of an ace isn’t lost on them. If the Tigers needed a win and Verlander was pitching, I’d expect them to win.

Which is why this deal is a win for the Tigers. They avoided another PR nightmare, didn’t have to overpay to keep him and at the same time, it shows a commitment to winning. The fresh wounds from Granderson have slightly healed. Detroit can rest easy now knowing that Verlander will be around for the next five years.

At least on every fifth day.

Valverde closes the deal

John Stroba-Writer

1/15/10

Yesterday, the Tigers do sign Jose Valverde to a very reasonable 14 million/2 year contract with a 3rd year option for a reported $5 million. He will be their closer for 2010 and 2011 barring injuries. It is a very good move that will deepen the bullpen, because right now Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry just are not ready to be the closer on the Tigers. Now, they can settle into setup man roles where if they struggle it is much easier to move them out of a setup man role than if either one of them would be the closer.

The reason for that is the media loves the "save" stat, it is easy to understand and their mistakes are very often fatal to their teams. So, naturally the questions begin about what is wrong with the closing situation. After a couple rough outings in a row, then the speculation (if the closer is not established) of who might be in next in the closer's role and how long the closer does have. That can be a real distraction around the team. Still, it is surprising to be hearing what the fans are complaining about this signing. It is a knee jerk reaction on their part for the most part.

1) The Tigers overpaid for him/lost the #19 draft pick in the first round.

Valverde is a lock down closer, and while he is a not an All Time great like a Mariano Rivera or a Trevor Hoffman he is a a very good closer. Now, I am usually wrong in terms of money about FAs, before the offseason I did think that Fernando Rodney was going to get something like 20 million/3 years. The economy (at least that is what the owners are saying) is forcing teams to spend more wisely (most of the time), so getting Valverde for something that I thought it would be Fernando Rodney money is great. Really quibbling that the Tigers spent a couple million more over the life of that contract is really an example of being penny-wise and pound foolish. The Tigers could not afford to have a couple youngsters with less than resumes take over the closer's role.

Not the least reason of which is Justin Verlander. Verlander is going to be a Free Agent after the 2011 season. The Tigers absolutely need Verlander to stay and sign a long term deal with them. He now becomes the face of this franchise, and the Tigers need to do everything to 1) make him want to stay here and 2) have enough money so they not only can sign him long term but have enough money left over to be a very competitive team. It is going to be a lot harder to sell Verlander on signing a long term deal with Detroit if the bullpen is blowing leads on a consistent basis, especially if that person is a closer. Is it really overpaying if signing Valverde means that Verlander is a much better bet to stay in the Old English D?

As far as giving up the #19 pick is the reason that the Tigers should not sign Valverde. Get real. In baseball, more than any other sport, the draft is an absolute crap shoot. Even if the Tigers would have gotten a hit with the #19 pick it is extremely unlikely that it would have been good enough to sway Verlander's thinking one way or another in the next two years. And let us be honest here the chances of that pick having as great an impact as Valverde is going to be have on the Tigers are very slim.

2) I thought the Tigers were having a fire sale, why deal Granderson and not offer Polanco arbitration then sign a closer?

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski never said that the Tigers were having a fire sale. When one considers that he was the man that was ordered to tear down the Marlins minutes after the 1997 World Series win, I would think that he would know. If the Tigers are going into fire sale mode, then the Tigers would have included a contract like Carlos Guillen into the trade. According to insiders, familiar with the deal before it went down, the Tigers never did try to do that. Now, Detroit is saying (as they should) that if the right deal comes around they would listen. The biggest thing that the Tigers do get out of this deal is that all 4 players have a combined 22 years that before the Tigers have to worry about Free Agency. The Tigers do get very nice young talent out of that trade.

Polanco is really a borderline case. Indications are that his FA suitor (Philadelphia) would not have been interested in him if the Tigers offer arbitration to him. With a young second basemen (Sizemore) ready to take over the position, it is an opportunity for the Tigers to get young and more athletic (one of their main goals) while saving some money. And the other question is would Polanco have been the second-half Polanco or the first-half? Sizemore is not going to be as good a defender as Polanco (though despite his Gold Glove Polanco's range did lose a step last year), he is going to be a very good hitter for them with an idea of the strike zone (something of a rarity among Tiger prospects). Something to consider as well, that if the Tigers did offer arbitration and Polanco does accept then the Valverde signing seems much more unlikely.

3) Anyone can get saves, give Zumaya or Perry a chance

It is true that the save stat is very broad and not a great measure of how good a closer really is. Way too much money, in my humble opinion, is tied into the save category. However, late inning losses are devastating to a club. While anyone can get saves, and a team does not always need a "proven" closer, it does help for the team to have a guy that does have a good resume if a closer. For example, if a team does have a setup man that is ready to take over the closer's role it is a lot easier to let the established closer go.

Joel Zumaya in save situations, in his career, is 3-7 4svs 4.04 ERA with a 1.449 WHIP in 73 games covering 89 innings. Those are some heartburn numbers right there. Zumaya does not have the control to be a closer either. His K/BB ratio in those situations is under 2 and that is not acceptable.

Ryan Perry does have under a year of experience in the majors. On the plus side like Zumaya he does want the ball in that time of the game, but he just does have enough on his resume to be a closer just yet. That could change in the next year, but it does not make sense to gamble on him to begin the season. Now, Perry can develop that resume so maybe in 2011 he can start making the case he can be that guy.

4) Why did the Tigers sign Valverde when they have a bunch RPs they drafted over the last couple of years.

Yes, the Tigers do have a bunch of RPs arms that are in the minors and just now poking their heads into Detroit. Ryan Perry the headliner of the 2008 Tigers draft appears to have a setup role all but locked up heading into Spring Training. Fu Te-Ni, an Asian import, looks to be ready to take over the #1 lefty role in the pen and I have heard some fans suggest that he is a closer candidate down the line.

Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt are also 2008 Tigers Draft alums and this year they will get to pitch in the upper minors, and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that with very good springs they could make the Tigers going north. However, that is a rather long shot.

Daniel Schlereth is another possibility, the first round draft pick in 2008 for Arizona, comes over the Edwin Jackson part of the 3 way deal. A lefty he could be the rare power lefty closer, his stuff is that good. He does need some work on his control, but Schlereth is a very aggressive pitcher a very good trait in a RP. A solid possibility remains that he might start the year in Toledo though.

What is the common theme in the Tigers bullpen this year? It is a very very young pen. And there is a good chance some parts of it will be in flux all year long. Having an established closer is a big deal to a young pen, because it allows some role definition to happen. Valverde really lengthens the bullpen just another reason he is a very good signing.

Value in Valverde?

John Stroba- Writer

1/11/10

The Tigers insist that they are happy with the closing possibilities in house this year even with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon leaving for greener pastures. Neither Joel Zumaya nor Ryan Perry as a closer is not something that Tigers should be super confident in. Zumaya and Perry just have not done enough to earn the closer's job. Zumaya is not very good in save chances converting under 20% of them in his career. Perry does have an excellent arm, but his control is lacking at times. Detroit fans would complain about Rodney being wild, but these two are much wilder than Rodney.

So a good case can be made that the Tigers do need a closer in addition to another left handed hitter (a need that is more acute with Granderson dealt). There is a very solid proven closer out there that would fit the Tigers vacancy and allow them to develop their plethora of RP arms in the minors that are close to being ready. Of course, in the short term signing this guy is going to cost the Tigers their first round pick, leaving them with only the two supplemental picks from Lyon (Astros) and Rodney (Angels) signing with other teams. Would the Tigers pay that price plus several years at a top salary (Valverde wants $8 million doubtful in this market)? That is the million dollar question. Should they pay that price? Yes, under certain conditions.

Those conditions are pretty easy to spot. The first one is that the Tigers need to think that they can contend in the AL Central next year. That pretty much seems like a given, because the White Sox and Minnesota do remain flawed ballclubs. There are no indications that the Tigers think they are not going to be a contending club this year and one thing that a contending club does need is a closer. Now, Detroit might think they have some closing candidates in house but even Mariano Rivera served an apprenticeship as a setup man first before the Yankees let their closer John Wetteland go. So in the ideal world Perry, Zumaya or whoever is in house would get a couple year or even a year of good to very good work as a setup man getting the saves that Valverde would not get. As many of us, especially in Michigan these days, it is not an ideal world.

This is not going to be a team that is going to be scoring many runs this year (at least on paper it does not look so). The games are going to be close so there are going to be a lot save opportunities, and coughing up those leads in the late innings are going to even more devastating. Signing a guy like Valverde would make the Tigers a lot deeper in the pen. Now, instead of Zumaya and Perry having to be the closer(s) they are the setup men with a nice couple of lefties in Ni and Seay. Add in a guy like Miner or someone like that and the pen gets a lot deeper.

The next important question is Valverde worth giving a 3 year contract to? Dombrowski is reluctant to go more than 4 years on a pitcher, and he does not like to give long term contracts to RPs. In his tenure, at Detroit, he does not give a contract for more than 2 years (Percival and Rodney). I could see him going 2 years with some sort of an option for a 3rd year though. If he does that though, is Valverde worth that? In the last 3 years(Arizona and last 2 in Houston) Valverde has gone 11-9 116 saves with a 2.84 ERA 1.25 WHIP along with 70bb/217k in 190.1 ip. Those are dominant numbers out of a closer. In 2007 and 2008 he did lead the National League in saves. He is entering his age 30 season, so signing him for 3 years takes the Tigers through his age 32 season. Barring injuries, Valverde should be one of the most productive closers in the next 3 seasons.

Valverde just hanging out there could be another example of the Tigers signing an impact player late in the offseason. Starting with the 2003 offseason these are the impact players that Dombrowski has acquired in January or later.

Jan 2004: Traded for Carlos Guillen

Feb 2004: Signed Pudge Rodriguez

Feb 2005: Signed Magglio Ordonez

Feb 2008: Traded for Armando Galarraga

Jan 2009: Signed Brandon Lyon

History says that Dombrowski will make a deal whether that is a FA or trading for a player that will make an impact on the team. Among the guys out there, very few would have the impact on the team that Valverde as a dominant closer would have. Everyone in the bullpen bumps down a notch or two. It becomes much deeper. With a good starting rotation, very good defense and a dominant closer the Tigers can seriously contend for the division title this year.

Now, I can hear a lot of people screaming right now about giving up a first rounder in the upcoming draft to sign Valverde. And it is true that the Tigers would be giving up a first rounder in order to sign Valverde. The Tigers would still have two supplemental picks before the second round starts and there is not reason that they could not go over slot and get some quality players at those positions. For one minute, let us play out the possibility that the Tigers do ahve quality closing candidates ready to take over for Valverde in 3 years (assuming he signs with Detroit). That would be an ideal world, because then the Tigers could let Valverde go and get a first rounder and a supplemental pick in return along with their own first rounder. That money could then be used elsewhere.

All in all, it does seem very likely that Jose Valverde is going to be the Tigers closer next year and beyond.

The MVP and pray for a good turn

John Stroba-Writer

It is that time of the year for everyone to be opening presents and enjoying what they do get even if this year it is not as much as previous years. More than a few Detroit fans are hoping that there might be a starting pitcher or two under the Christmas tree, even it takes a month for that present to arrive. The Tigers do have a limited budget it appears and it is quite possible that a starter or two is not going to be signed this offseason, because what money they do have needs to be put into the bullpen. However, there is a lengthy list of potential candidates beyond the top 3 (Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer). In this article, it will look at the starting rotation as things stand right now and could stand down the road.

Eddie Bonine: Next. Bonine just is not good enough to be a consideration unless there are massive injuries and the Tigers have to throw someone out there.

Alfredo Figaro: Detroit really needed a body done the stretch and with a rash of injuries they did call up Figaro who was having a very solid minor league season. Figaro did about as well as anyone could expect from a normal AA prospect. He did have some nice moments and you could see the potential there, but he was just a bit too inconsistent. If he can become more consistent, then he might be a factor when the Tigers need to call up a starter. Likely will start in Toledo to begin the year. Someone to keep an eye on though.

Phil Coke: Coke did come over in the Granderson deal. He was a starter that struggled in AA until moving to the bullpen and then he really took off. Still, the Tigers want to look at him as a starter possibly in spring training. Leyland does really want a lefty in the rotation everything being equal. Coke with a good spring training could really mean the end of the Nate Robertson.

Justin Verlander: Verlander is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He is now the face of the franchise with the Tigers dealing away Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. Verlander is going to be the Tigers ace next year without question, and among Tigers fandom there is an undercurent of worry almost certain that Verlander is not going to want to sign an extension with Detroit. That is if Detroit can afford to extend him in the first place. Following that current, it assumes that the Tigers are going to become like what they were prior to 2006 a franchise that just does not matter.

It is true that Verlander does have Scott Boras as his agent, and it is true that Boras does do a good job getting his clients big contracts and ones that do raise eyebrows around the league. This year so far that would include Pudge Rodriguez (6 million/2 years to be a backup catcher in Washington). While Detroit is not thought of as a major market, they are a team that is willing to spend and the Tigers do have some Boras clients (Mags Ordonez, Gerald Laird, Max Scherzer and Jacob Turner) plus they have paid top dollar for Boras clients in FA as well (Kenny Rogers, Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez). In addition, the Tigers are going to have a lot of money freed up next offseason in order to talk to Verlander about an extension. And Illitch does show a willingness to spend to keep his star players. Now, I suppose it is possible (though not very likely) that the Tigers could be a 60-70 win team and not close to contention and that could influence Verlander to not sign an extension.

Realistically, though Verlander should be a top 5 AL starter next year and the Tigers will sign him to a very big long term extension (something like 80 million/5 years).

Rick Porcello: Porcello likely moves to the #2 SP slot in the rotation with Edwin Jackson twirling in a desert location next year. Detroit is going to be very careful with this special arm, but it is hard to imagine that the same restrictions will be in place as last season. While his low K/9 rate last year does raise some concerns it is important to consider that Porcello is only 20 years old in his rookie season. It is very rare that 20 year old pitchers make a big league rotation, let alone hold down a spot and be very solid during division chase. He does have all the makings of being a very good starting pitcher down the line. Still, he is a very young pitcher and young pitchers have a tendency of getting hurt. That is the same risk that every pitcher does have at Porcello's age (entering his age 21 season), but very few have the kind of upside that he demonstrates.

Max Scherzer: Scherzer did have a very solid rookie season for Arizona putting up a solid enough ERA (4.12) in a very offensive ballpark. Moving from Arizona to a more run nuetral park in Detroit should negate at least part of the fact, that the AL is tougher leaguer than the NL in recent years. Scherzer does have some positives such as striking out more than a batter an inning and pretty good control. For the Tigers to contend he is going to have to stay healthy and be able to get around 180 innings at least.

Jermey Bonderman: Have to give Bondermand some credit for even making it back from a potential life threatening surgery that did remove a rib from him. He never did get the MPH on his fastball that he had before the surgery. A tough guy that wants the ball every time it is his turn. Right now Bonderman is being pencilled in as the Tigers #4 SP. If he could come back and just be a league average pitcher soaking up a lot of innings that would be a huge boost to the Tigers chances of winning the division this year. It would not be a surprise though if Bonderman could not do that, and he does have learn a 3rd pitch to reach the next level. He might be the major X factor in the rotation this year.

Armando Galarraga: After a very solid rookie season, some in Tiger fandom thought that AG could take another step forward in his development despite having several indicators (strikeout rate, BABIP to name a couple) that do leap out upon a closer inspection. Now, it looks like his 2008 season is his career year. The fact that Bonderman (with his injury and stuff concerns) is being thought of as the #4 SP is very telling of how far down AG's stock is. The biggest downfall AG did have is being very homer happy (24 in 143.2 ip last year) plus his control was not very good. He will go into spring training fighting for a rotation spot, and will need people ahead of him (Bonderman, Robertson and Coke) to struggle in Spring Training to claim a rotation spot.

Dontrelle Willis: There is not another player in all of MLB, that I am pulling for to find his way back to at least being a decent pitcher. Willis does bring a lot of excitement and is fun to watch when he is on. No one could have enough foresight to see what would happen to him when he was dealt to Detroit. That being said it would be very surprising to see him make any sort of menaingful contribution to the Tigers this year. What a great story if he could do it though.

Nate Robertson: While Dontrelle's fall from grace is dramatic, Robertson is a guy that is consistently bad for the last couple of years. If it is not for the $10 million left on his contract, he would have been looooonnnnggg gggooooonneeee several months ago. Spring Training is going to be absolutely huge for Robertson, he is going to have to show something that deserves to come north. Otherwise, he is a candidate to get lopped off much like Gary Sheffield was last year. Robertson is also going to have to make it as a starter with plenty of lefty options it is hard to see Nate making it to the pen.

Zach Miner: Miner is an example of being just good enough to be on a MLB pitching staff. He is not a particulary good starter (4.80 ERA/1.44 WHIP) or that impressive as a RP (3.60/1.47), but he is one of those guys that is consistently worth a spot on a staff because he can soak up some innings. He will be in the mix, but the Tigers will probably want him to be in the bullpen unless injuries happen to the starting staff.